This article is the final part of a detailed report (the full report in PDF format is available here) prepared by Trust but Verify as part of a fact-checking investigation into the missile attack on the Okhmatdyt children's hospital in Kyiv on July 8, 2024. The first part assessed the parameters of the missile that attacked Ohmatdyt and found that all these estimates fully correspond to the characteristics of the X-101 missile. The second part shows that all the arguments against the fact that it was an X-101 missile are based on false premises. The third part analyzes alternative versions expressed by officials and discussed in social media.
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Article editor: Mark Beygelzimer, PhD, systems analyst, head of the Trust but Verify project.
4. Аnalysis of alternative versions
It should be noted at once that the mention of a particular type of missile in the alternative versions does not mean that the authors of this study assert the presence of this type of missile in the armament of the parties.
In each version, we will note not all, but only the most obvious inconsistencies regarding the characteristics of the rocket in video 1 (see the first part of our detailed analysis).
4.1. U.S. anti-aircraft guided missile
AIM-120 AMRAAM
for NASAMS.
Photo from Wikimedia Commons
This version was voiced by Maria Zakharova (Russian Foreign Ministry), Vasily Nebenzya (Russian Permanent Representative to the UN), Russian propagandists, more.
The version is false because of inconsistencies in the features of AIM-120 AMRAAM [16]:
• The number of wings in the middle part of the missile is 4, not 2
• The length of the missile is 3.66 meters, not 7.5±0.5 meters
• The ratio of missile length to body diameter is 20.5, not 8...13
• The speed of flight to the target is 4800 km/h, not 700±100 km/h
• Engine type - solid fuel, not turbojet
• Engine location - inside, not outside
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4.2. U.S. anti-aircraft guided missile
MIM-104 for Patriot SAM system.
Image from Flot3000
This version was expressed by the Russian Defense Ministry, American blogger Jackson Hinkle, Russia Today, Russian propagandists, more.
The version is false due to inconsistencies in the features of MIM-104 missiles [17; 18]:
• The number of wings in the middle part is 0 or 4 (modifications), not 2
• Missile length is 5.3 meters, not 7.5±0.5 meters
• The speed of flight to the target is 6000 km/h, not 700±100 km/h
• Engine type - solid fuel, not turbojet
• Engine location - inside, not outside
American anti-missile
ERINT for Patriot SAM.
Image from TurboSquid
This version is voiced by Dmitry Peskov (press secretary for Russian President, without specifying the type of anti-missile), and is circulating on social networks.
The version is false because of inconsistencies in the features of ERINT missiles [18-19]:
• Number of wings - 4, not 2
• Location of wings - in the tail part, not in the middle part
• Missile length - 4.8 m, not 7.5±0.5 m
• The ratio of missile length to body diameter is 19, not 8...13
• Flight speed to the target - 10000 km/h, not 700±100 km/h
• Engine type - solid fuel, not turbojet
• Engine location - inside, not outside
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Italian guided missile
Aspide Mk1.
Photo from Desarrollo y Defensa
This version is circulating on social media.
The version is false because of inconsistencies in the features of Aspide Mk1 missiles [20; 21]:
• The number of wings in the middle part is 4, not 2
• Missile length - 3.7 m, not 7.5±0.5 m
• The ratio of missile length to body diameter is 18, not 8...13
• Speed of flight to the target - 4500 km/h, not 700±100 km/h
• Engine type - solid fuel, not turbojet
• Engine location - inside, not outside
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Anglo-French cruise missile
Storm Shadow/SCALP.
This version is being discussed on social media.
Версія - хибна через невідповідність характеристик Storm Shadow/SCALP [22-23]:
• Wings location - on top of the body, not on the bottom
• The missile length is 5.1 meters, not 7.5±0.5 meters
• Engine location - inside, not outside.
Ukrainian cruise missile
Neptun R-360.
Photo: National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, photo source — Militarnyi
This version is being discussed on social media.
The version is false due to inconsistency in features of Neptun R-360 [24-26]:
• The number of wings in the middle part is 4, not 2
• The missile length - 5.5 m, not 7.5±0.5 m
• Engine location - inside, not outside.
Anti-aircraft guided
missile of the S-300 complex.
Figure from Nemiga.инфо
This version is circulating on social media.
The version is false due to inconsistency in features of S-300 missiles [27-28]:
• No wings in the middle part (not 2 wings)
• Flight speed to target - 3200 to 7500 (different types), not 700±100 km/h
• Engine type - solid fuel, not turbojet
• Engine location - inside, not outside.
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A missile off course due to a Ukrainian air defense interceptor missile.
Photo collage by the authors
This version was voiced by Sergey Lavrov (Russian Foreign Minister) during his speech at the UN on July 17, 2024.
The version is false. It is not confirmed by the video (see video 1 above), which clearly shows that the missile is flying stably in a straight line, without rotation relative to its transverse axes (chaotic yaw or pitch). This character of the missile motion indicates that it was a controlled flight until the very last moment. In addition, there are no signs of damage to the rocket, including smoke (with the exception of a jet of exhaust from the tail of the rocket from the normally running engine). Thus, there are no signs of any external impact on the missile, which excludes the version of its deviation from its course due to the impact of a Ukrainian air defense interceptor missile (see also [2; 12]).
Thus, all alternative versions contradict the objective data.
5. Conslusions
1) Estimates of all parameters of the missile that hit Okhmatdyt children’s hospital correspond to the characteristics of the Kh-101 missile (see Part 1).
2) All arguments of the opponents of the version of the strike on the Okhmatdyt by the missile Kh-101 are based on erroneous statements (see Part 2)
3) All alternative versions, including the official versions of the Russian leadership, contradict objective data (see above in this Part).
Sources of information
1. Building of the Ministry of Transport of Ukraine on SkyscraperPage.com Archived May 15, 2012 at the Wayback Machine
2. A breakdown of the strike on the Okhmatdyt hospital. July 9, 2024 [in Russian].
3. V. Romanenko. Russian strike on Okhmatdyt hospital: experts identified more than 30 parts and fragments of the Kh-101 missile - photos. Ukrainska Pravda, July 10, 2024.
4. I. Labyak. All about the brutal attack on Okhmatdyt hospital in Kiev: there are victims and wounded, people are looking for under the rubble (photo, video). TSN, July 08, 2024 [in Ukrainian].
5. Andriy Tsaplienko Telegram-channel [in Russian].
6. Facebook page of VATL "Okhmatdyt"
7. monitor Telegram-channel.
8. Kh-101. Article in Wikipedia.
9. R95-300. Article in Runiversalis.
10. I. Volzhsky. Indefensible. Novaya Gazeta Europe, July 10, 2024.
11. Bellingcat website. Russian Missile Identified in Kyiv Children’s Hospital Attack. July 09, 2024.
12. Experts on the strike on a children's hospital in Kiev: "It was a Russian missile". BBC News. Russian Service. July 9, 2024 [in Russian].
13. Y. Podolyaka. Whose missile fell near the Okhmatdyt hospital in Kiev: a parsing of "Military Chronicle". July 08, 2024 [in Russian].
14. Russian Federation began to produce Kh-101 missile with double warhead - media. PHOTO. Net, March 30, 2024.
15. Telegram channel Polkovnik GS. March 29, 2024 [in Russian].
16. AIM-120 AMRAAM. Article in Wikipedia.
17. MIM-104 PATRIOT: Digital Intelligence in the Sky (part II) [in Russian].
18. MIM-104 Patriot. Article in Wikipedia.
19. What are the Patriot SAMs capable of? Zen, January 7, 2023 [in Russian].
20. Aspid. Article in Wikipedia.
21. Aspid. Article в Wikibrief [in Russian].
22. Storm Shadow. Article in Wikipedia.
23. A. Golishevskaya, A. Kovalenko. Storm Shadow. Facty, January 17, 2024 [in Russian].
24. Mariner. What is known about the Neptune missile. Militarnyi, February 3, 2018 [in Ukrainian].
25. Volodymir B. RK-360MC "Neptune": a factor of deterrence of the Russian Navy. Militarnyi, November 6, 2023 [in Ukrainian].
26. R-360 Neptune. Article in Wikipedia.
27. S-300 missile system. Article in Wikipedia.
28. S-300 missile system. Nemiga.info. [in Russian]
On the cover: Russia's Permanent Representative to the United Nations Vasily Nebenzya. Photo: UN Archives, photo source: mind
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